🏎️ Nina's F1 Predictions: 2026 Japanese Grand Prix (Round 3)¶
Suzuka Circuit — March 27-29, 2026¶
Model version: v1.0+Q (Post-race — results and accuracy in Section 11)
Data: 72 races (2023-2026), 1,442 results + lap telemetry + weather
Last updated: June 5, 2026 (post-race accuracy analysis added)
What This Is¶
A machine learning model that predicts Formula 1 race results and optimizes F1 Fantasy lineups. The model analyzes 24 different factors — the same kinds of data a race engineer would consider when building a race strategy — and runs 10,000 simulated races to estimate each driver's probability of finishing on the podium, in the points, or beating their teammate.
The 2026 season introduced massive regulation changes — new power units (50/50 electric/ICE), active aerodynamics that replace DRS, smaller and lighter cars, and 100% sustainable fuels. The entire competitive order has been reshuffled. Mercedes went from struggling to dominant. McLaren went from champions to backmarkers. Red Bull went from winning everything to Tier 4. This model accounts for that by weighting 2026 data 10x more heavily than historical data.
The 24 Features¶
The model looks at every driver through these lenses:
Car Performance (2026 only):
- 🏗️ Constructor pace — average finish position by team this season
- ⚡ Straight-line speed — speed trap data, critical for Suzuka's 1.2km back straight
Driver Skill (all years, car-independent):
- 👤 Teammate delta — how much better/worse than their teammate
- 📊 Recent form — rolling average finish position
- 🚀 First lap performance — who consistently gains/loses positions at the start
- 📈 Season momentum — are they trending up or down? (uses current team only for drivers who switched)
- 🎯 Positions gained per race — racecraft and overtaking ability
- ⏱️ Qualifying vs race pace — "Saturday car" vs "Sunday car"
Tire & Strategy:
- 🛞 Tire degradation rate — who's gentle on tires (longer stints, fewer stops)
- 🔧 Pit stop frequency — driver and team pit stop patterns
Track-Specific (Suzuka):
- 🗾 Sector 1 pace — technical corners through The Esses
- 🗾 Sector 2 pace — power sector (back straight + Degner curves)
- 🗾 Sector 3 pace — mixed character (Spoon, 130R, chicane)
- 🏁 Track experience — how many times they've raced here
Conditions & Context:
- 🌡️ Weather — temperature, humidity, rainfall
- 🌧️ Wet-weather skill — positions gained in historical rain races
- 🟡 Safety car — 33% probability at Suzuka, wired into simulations
- 🔄 Team changed — 9 of 22 drivers switched teams for 2026 (adds uncertainty)
- 📋 Consistency — lap time variation (lower = more reliable)
- 🏎️ DNF rate — reliability factor
- 🔬 2026 flag — tells the model this is a regulation-change year
How It Works¶
- Two-model approach: Car pace comes ONLY from 2026 data. Driver skill uses all 72 races but measures performance relative to the car — so it transfers across regulation changes.
- XGBoost machine learning — the gold standard algorithm for F1 prediction (77-82% winner accuracy in published research). It automatically learns which features matter most.
- 10,000 simulated races — each simulation adds realistic randomness (safety cars, incidents, mechanical failures) calibrated to the model's actual prediction error. This produces probabilities, not just a single prediction.
- Honest validation — we use leave-one-out cross-validation on 2026 data. The accuracy we report (MAE 2.39 positions) is real — the model never saw the data it was tested on.
1. New Feature Deep Dive¶
Four charts showing what makes each driver unique — their first-lap performance (who gains positions at the start), how gently they treat their tires, whether they're trending up or down this season, and how fast their car is on the straights. These differences matter at Suzuka.
2. Suzuka Sector Analysis¶
Suzuka has three distinct sectors that test different car characteristics:
- S1 (Turns 1-9): High-speed technical corners through 'The Esses' — rewards downforce and driver confidence
- S2 (Back straight + Degner): Pure power — the 1.2km straight is where active aero overtakes happen
- S3 (Spoon, 130R, chicane): Mixed character — late braking and car balance
=========================================================================== 🗾 SUZUKA SECTOR PROFILES — Who's Fast Where? =========================================================================== S1: Technical (The Esses) | S2: Power (Back Straight) | S3: Mixed Driver S1 (tech) S2 (power) S3 (mixed) Best Sector ---------------------------------------------------------------------- George Russell -0.191s -0.067s -0.010s S1 Kimi Antonelli -2.128s -1.042s -0.576s S1 Charles Leclerc -0.210s -0.227s -0.077s S2 Lewis Hamilton -0.231s -0.121s -0.057s S1 Lando Norris -0.503s -0.354s -0.079s S1 Max Verstappen -0.584s -0.487s -0.154s S1 Oliver Bearman -1.925s -0.768s -0.379s S1 Arvid Lindblad no data no data no data No Suzuka data Gabriel Bortoleto -1.586s -0.641s -0.396s S1 Pierre Gasly +0.466s +0.270s +0.138s S3 Esteban Ocon +0.575s +0.374s +0.174s S3 Alexander Albon +0.005s +0.208s +0.109s S1 Liam Lawson -0.025s +0.119s +0.037s S1 Franco Colapinto no data no data no data No Suzuka data Carlos Sainz -0.098s -0.097s -0.099s S3 Sergio Perez +0.892s +0.674s +0.322s S3 Lance Stroll +0.283s +0.226s +0.192s S3 Fernando Alonso -0.093s -0.079s +0.061s S1 Valtteri Bottas +1.903s +0.675s +0.233s S3 Isack Hadjar -1.995s -0.943s -0.475s S1 Oscar Piastri -0.377s -0.241s -0.006s S1 Nico Hulkenberg +0.215s +0.178s +0.020s S3
3. Car Pace (2026 Only)¶
The most important factor in F1: which car are you driving? This section uses ONLY 2026 results because the new regulations completely reshuffled the pecking order. Mercedes went from struggling to dominant. McLaren went from champions to backmarkers. Historical speed means nothing when the cars are fundamentally different.
====================================================================== 🏗️ CONSTRUCTOR PACE (2026 Only) ====================================================================== Team Avg Fin Speed Tier -------------------------------------------------- Mercedes P 4.1 289 Tier 2 Ferrari P 5.2 286 Tier 2 Alpine P 10.5 289 Tier 3 McLaren P 10.8 284 Tier 3 Red Bull Racing P 10.8 293 Tier 3 Racing Bulls P 11.4 282 Tier 3 Haas F1 Team P 12.2 288 Tier 4 Williams P 13.8 286 Tier 4 Audi P 13.9 279 Tier 4 Cadillac P 16.8 278 Tier 5 Aston Martin P 17.0 278 Tier 5
3b. FP1 Practice Data (Live)¶
Actual practice session data from Suzuka, pulled via FastF1. This updates car pace and speed estimates with real 2026 Suzuka performance, and provides actual weather conditions for the prediction model.
core INFO Loading data for Japanese Grand Prix - Practice 1 [v3.8.3]
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core INFO Finished loading data for 22 drivers: ['1', '3', '5', '6', '10', '11', '12', '16', '18', '23', '27', '30', '31', '34', '41', '43', '44', '55', '63', '77', '81', '87']
================================================================================ 🏁 FP1 RESULTS — Suzuka (Live Data) ================================================================================ Pos Driver Team Best Lap Gap Top Spd ------------------------------------------------------------------------ P 1 George Russell Mercedes 1:31.666 FASTEST 285 P 2 Kimi Antonelli Mercedes 1:31.692 +0.026 285 P 3 Lando Norris McLaren 1:31.798 +0.132 281 P 4 Oscar Piastri McLaren 1:31.865 +0.199 297 P 5 Charles Leclerc Ferrari 1:31.955 +0.289 290 P 6 Lewis Hamilton Ferrari 1:32.040 +0.374 284 P 7 Max Verstappen Red Bull Racing 1:32.457 +0.791 290 P 8 Liam Lawson Racing Bulls 1:32.529 +0.863 286 P 9 Esteban Ocon Haas F1 Team 1:32.601 +0.935 281 P10 Arvid Lindblad Racing Bulls 1:32.665 +0.999 297 P11 Gabriel Bortoleto Audi 1:32.759 +1.093 286 P12 Nico Hulkenberg Audi 1:32.798 +1.132 284 P13 Isack Hadjar Red Bull Racing 1:32.803 +1.137 290 P14 Oliver Bearman Haas F1 Team 1:32.900 +1.234 281 P15 Pierre Gasly Alpine 1:32.978 +1.312 291 P16 Franco Colapinto Alpine 1:33.361 +1.695 284 P17 Carlos Sainz Williams 1:33.383 +1.717 294 P18 Alexander Albon Williams 1:33.697 +2.031 281 P19 Sergio Perez Cadillac 1:34.221 +2.555 288 P20 Valtteri Bottas Cadillac 1:34.490 +2.824 293 P21 Lance Stroll Aston Martin 1:35.294 +3.628 277 P22 Jak Crawford Aston Martin 1:36.362 +4.696 269 📊 BLENDED CAR PACE (60% season + 40% FP1): Team Season FP1 Blended FP1 Spd ------------------------------------------------------- Mercedes P 4.1 P1.5 P 3.0 288 Ferrari P 5.2 P5.5 P 5.3 287 Alpine P 10.5 P15.5 P 12.5 289 McLaren P 10.8 P3.5 P 7.9 286 Red Bull Racing P 10.8 P9.5 P 10.3 292 Racing Bulls P 11.4 P7.5 P 9.8 286 Haas F1 Team P 12.2 P11.5 P 11.9 285 Williams P 13.8 P17.5 P 15.3 287 Audi P 13.9 P13.5 P 13.8 281 Cadillac P 16.8 P19.5 P 17.9 283 Aston Martin P 17.0 P21.5 P 18.8 276 🌡️ Actual conditions: 16.4°C, 49% humidity, DRY 🛞 TIRE STINTS: George Russell HARD(17), SOFT(10) Kimi Antonelli HARD(12), SOFT(14) Lando Norris MEDIUM(11), SOFT(9) Oscar Piastri MEDIUM(17), SOFT(6) Charles Leclerc HARD(10), SOFT(15) Lewis Hamilton HARD(11), SOFT(12) Max Verstappen MEDIUM(21), SOFT(6) Liam Lawson HARD(11), SOFT(16) Esteban Ocon HARD(17), SOFT(6) Arvid Lindblad HARD(19), SOFT(10)
3c. FP2 Practice Data (Live)¶
Second practice session — longer runs, race fuel simulations, and more representative pace. FP2 gets the highest weight in the blend since it best reflects race conditions.
Updated blend: 30% season + 30% FP1 + 40% FP2
core INFO Loading data for Japanese Grand Prix - Practice 2 [v3.8.3]
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core INFO Finished loading data for 22 drivers: ['1', '3', '5', '6', '10', '11', '12', '14', '16', '18', '23', '27', '30', '31', '41', '43', '44', '55', '63', '77', '81', '87']
================================================================================ 🏁 FP2 RESULTS — Suzuka (Live Data) ================================================================================ Pos Driver Team Best Lap Gap Top Spd ------------------------------------------------------------------------ P 1 Oscar Piastri McLaren 1:30.133 FASTEST 292 P 2 Kimi Antonelli Mercedes 1:30.225 +0.092 288 P 3 George Russell Mercedes 1:30.338 +0.205 281 P 4 Lando Norris McLaren 1:30.649 +0.516 289 P 5 Charles Leclerc Ferrari 1:30.846 +0.713 293 P 6 Lewis Hamilton Ferrari 1:30.980 +0.847 280 P 7 Nico Hulkenberg Audi 1:31.441 +1.308 295 P 8 Alexander Albon Williams 1:31.496 +1.363 285 P 9 Oliver Bearman Haas F1 Team 1:31.498 +1.365 295 P10 Max Verstappen Red Bull Racing 1:31.509 +1.376 288 P11 Esteban Ocon Haas F1 Team 1:31.532 +1.399 283 P12 Liam Lawson Racing Bulls 1:31.590 +1.457 289 P13 Carlos Sainz Williams 1:31.608 +1.475 289 P14 Pierre Gasly Alpine 1:31.734 +1.601 291 P15 Isack Hadjar Red Bull Racing 1:31.759 +1.626 284 P16 Gabriel Bortoleto Audi 1:31.933 +1.800 284 P17 Franco Colapinto Alpine 1:32.438 +2.305 288 P18 Valtteri Bottas Cadillac 1:32.615 +2.482 290 P19 Fernando Alonso Aston Martin 1:33.596 +3.463 288 P20 Sergio Perez Cadillac 1:33.689 +3.556 286 P21 Lance Stroll Aston Martin 1:33.951 +3.818 280 📊 BLENDED CAR PACE (30% season + 30% FP1 + 40% FP2): Team Season FP1 FP2 Blended FP2 Spd -------------------------------------------------------------- Mercedes P 4.1 P1.5 P1.5 P 2.3 286 Ferrari P 5.2 P5.5 P5.5 P 5.4 287 Alpine P 10.5 P15.5 P17.5 P 14.8 289 McLaren P 10.8 P3.5 P3.5 P 5.7 288 Red Bull Racing P 10.8 P9.5 P13.5 P 11.5 289 Racing Bulls P 11.4 P7.5 P11.5 P 10.3 288 Haas F1 Team P 12.2 P11.5 P7.5 P 10.1 286 Williams P 13.8 P17.5 P9.5 P 13.2 287 Audi P 13.9 P13.5 P15.5 P 14.4 285 Cadillac P 16.8 P19.5 P19.5 P 18.7 286 Aston Martin P 17.0 P21.5 P21.5 P 20.1 279 🌡️ FP2 conditions: 17.2°C, 46% humidity, DRY 🛞 FP2 TIRE STINTS: Oscar Piastri MEDIUM(17), SOFT(12) Kimi Antonelli MEDIUM(18), SOFT(10) George Russell MEDIUM(18), SOFT(11) Lando Norris MEDIUM(8), SOFT(9) Charles Leclerc MEDIUM(19), SOFT(9) Lewis Hamilton MEDIUM(18), SOFT(9) Nico Hulkenberg HARD(15), SOFT(12) Alexander Albon MEDIUM(21), SOFT(9) Oliver Bearman MEDIUM(22), SOFT(6) Max Verstappen HARD(26), SOFT(3) 📈 FP2 LONG RUN PACE (5+ consecutive laps on same compound): Driver Team Compound Laps Avg Pace -------------------------------------------------------------------- Lewis Hamilton Ferrari SOFT 4 1:33.617 FASTEST Nico Hulkenberg Audi SOFT 5 1:33.638 +0.022 Kimi Antonelli Mercedes MEDIUM 11 1:34.069 +0.452 George Russell Mercedes MEDIUM 11 1:34.317 +0.701 Charles Leclerc Ferrari MEDIUM 11 1:34.810 +1.194 Oscar Piastri McLaren MEDIUM 12 1:35.018 +1.402 Pierre Gasly Alpine HARD 13 1:35.303 +1.686 Lance Stroll Aston Martin MEDIUM 4 1:35.356 +1.740 Lewis Hamilton Ferrari MEDIUM 9 1:35.540 +1.923 Nico Hulkenberg Audi HARD 10 1:35.612 +1.996 Esteban Ocon Haas F1 Team MEDIUM 15 1:35.726 +2.110 Oliver Bearman Haas F1 Team MEDIUM 14 1:35.747 +2.131 Liam Lawson Racing Bulls MEDIUM 11 1:35.793 +2.176 Alexander Albon Williams MEDIUM 13 1:35.961 +2.344 Franco Colapinto Alpine MEDIUM 13 1:35.991 +2.374 Isack Hadjar Red Bull Racing HARD 13 1:36.068 +2.452 Max Verstappen Red Bull Racing HARD 17 1:36.345 +2.728 Fernando Alonso Aston Martin SOFT 10 1:36.403 +2.787 Carlos Sainz Williams HARD 13 1:36.531 +2.915 Pierre Gasly Alpine SOFT 3 1:37.129 +3.512 Valtteri Bottas Cadillac MEDIUM 14 1:37.271 +3.655 Kimi Antonelli Mercedes SOFT 3 1:37.878 +4.261 Lando Norris McLaren SOFT 4 1:38.010 +4.393 Sergio Perez Cadillac HARD 5 1:38.149 +4.532 Charles Leclerc Ferrari SOFT 5 1:39.002 +5.385 Lando Norris McLaren MEDIUM 4 1:39.216 +5.600 Oscar Piastri McLaren SOFT 6 1:41.791 +8.174 Valtteri Bottas Cadillac SOFT 3 1:42.285 +8.669 George Russell Mercedes SOFT 5 1:42.897 +9.281 Liam Lawson Racing Bulls SOFT 4 1:44.219 +10.602 Lance Stroll Aston Martin SOFT 6 1:46.649 +13.032 Carlos Sainz Williams SOFT 4 1:49.678 +16.061 Gabriel Bortoleto Audi SOFT 5 1:51.852 +18.235 Alexander Albon Williams SOFT 5 1:55.146 +21.529 🔄 FP1 vs FP2 TEAM MOVEMENT: Team FP1 Pos FP2 Pos Change ------------------------------------------------ Mercedes P 1.5 P 1.5 ➡️ +0.0 Ferrari P 5.5 P 5.5 ➡️ +0.0 McLaren P 3.5 P 3.5 ➡️ +0.0 Haas F1 Team P 11.5 P 7.5 ⬆️ +4.0 Racing Bulls P 7.5 P 11.5 ⬇️ -4.0 Red Bull Racing P 9.5 P 13.5 ⬇️ -4.0 Williams P 17.5 P 9.5 ⬆️ +8.0 Audi P 13.5 P 15.5 ⬇️ -2.0 Alpine P 15.5 P 17.5 ⬇️ -2.0 Cadillac P 19.5 P 19.5 ➡️ +0.0 Aston Martin P 21.5 P 21.5 ➡️ +0.0
3d. FP3 Practice Data (Live)¶
Final practice before qualifying — same track conditions, teams in full qualifying preparation mode. This session is the closest practice analog to qualifying pace.
core INFO Loading data for Japanese Grand Prix - Practice 3 [v3.8.3]
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core INFO Finished loading data for 22 drivers: ['1', '3', '5', '6', '10', '11', '12', '14', '16', '18', '23', '27', '30', '31', '41', '43', '44', '55', '63', '77', '81', '87']
================================================================================ 🏁 FP3 RESULTS — Suzuka (Live Data) ================================================================================ Pos Driver Team Best Lap Gap Top Spd ------------------------------------------------------------------------ P 1 Kimi Antonelli Mercedes 1:29.362 FASTEST 281 P 2 George Russell Mercedes 1:29.616 +0.254 282 P 3 Charles Leclerc Ferrari 1:30.229 +0.867 286 P 4 Oscar Piastri McLaren 1:30.364 +1.002 282 P 5 Lewis Hamilton Ferrari 1:30.383 +1.021 283 P 6 Lando Norris McLaren 1:30.600 +1.238 279 P 7 Nico Hulkenberg Audi 1:30.658 +1.296 286 P 8 Max Verstappen Red Bull Racing 1:30.910 +1.548 288 P 9 Gabriel Bortoleto Audi 1:31.000 +1.638 288 P10 Pierre Gasly Alpine 1:31.082 +1.720 282 P11 Isack Hadjar Red Bull Racing 1:31.094 +1.732 287 P12 Liam Lawson Racing Bulls 1:31.097 +1.735 287 P13 Arvid Lindblad Racing Bulls 1:31.288 +1.926 285 P14 Esteban Ocon Haas F1 Team 1:31.326 +1.964 285 P15 Oliver Bearman Haas F1 Team 1:31.558 +2.196 281 P16 Alexander Albon Williams 1:31.733 +2.371 285 P17 Franco Colapinto Alpine 1:31.759 +2.397 279 P18 Carlos Sainz Williams 1:31.829 +2.467 309 P19 Valtteri Bottas Cadillac 1:32.503 +3.141 289 P20 Sergio Perez Cadillac 1:32.540 +3.178 283 P21 Lance Stroll Aston Martin 1:33.485 +4.123 276 P22 Fernando Alonso Aston Martin 1:33.529 +4.167 282 📊 BLENDED CAR PACE (20% season + 20% FP1 + 30% FP2 + 30% FP3): Team Season FP1 FP2 FP3 Blended ----------------------------------------------------------------- Mercedes P 4.1 P1.5 P1.5 P1.5 P 2.0 Ferrari P 5.2 P5.5 P5.5 P3.5 P 4.8 Alpine P 10.5 P15.5 P17.5 P13.5 P 14.5 McLaren P 10.8 P3.5 P3.5 P5.5 P 5.6 Red Bull Racing P 10.8 P9.5 P13.5 P9.5 P 11.0 Racing Bulls P 11.4 P7.5 P11.5 P11.5 P 10.7 Haas F1 Team P 12.2 P11.5 P7.5 P15.5 P 11.6 Williams P 13.8 P17.5 P9.5 P17.5 P 14.4 Audi P 13.9 P13.5 P15.5 P7.5 P 12.4 Cadillac P 16.8 P19.5 P19.5 P19.5 P 19.0 Aston Martin P 17.0 P21.5 P21.5 P21.5 P 20.6 🌡️ FP3 conditions: 16.1°C, 54% humidity, DRY 🔄 FP2 vs FP3 TEAM MOVEMENT: Team FP2 Pos FP3 Pos Change ------------------------------------------------ Mercedes P 1.5 P 1.5 ➡️ +0.0 Ferrari P 5.5 P 3.5 ⬆️ +2.0 McLaren P 3.5 P 5.5 ⬇️ -2.0 Racing Bulls P 11.5 P 11.5 ➡️ +0.0 Red Bull Racing P 13.5 P 9.5 ⬆️ +4.0 Haas F1 Team P 7.5 P 15.5 ⬇️ -8.0 Audi P 15.5 P 7.5 ⬆️ +8.0 Williams P 9.5 P 17.5 ⬇️ -8.0 Alpine P 17.5 P 13.5 ⬆️ +4.0 Cadillac P 19.5 P 19.5 ➡️ +0.0 Aston Martin P 21.5 P 21.5 ➡️ +0.0
3e. Qualifying Data (Live)¶
The single biggest accuracy upgrade. Grid position is the model's #1 predictor (0.160 importance) and qualifying gives us actual starting positions instead of estimates. This cell also extracts live qualifying sector times, speed traps, and updates car pace with the strongest single-session performance signal of the weekend.
core INFO Loading data for Japanese Grand Prix - Qualifying [v3.8.3]
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req INFO Using cached data for race_control_messages
core INFO Finished loading data for 22 drivers: ['12', '63', '81', '16', '1', '44', '10', '6', '5', '41', '3', '31', '27', '30', '43', '55', '23', '87', '11', '77', '14', '18']
========================================================================================== 🏁 QUALIFYING RESULTS — Suzuka (Actual Grid) ========================================================================================== Pos Driver Team Q1 Q2 Q3 Gap ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- P 1 Kimi Antonelli Mercedes 1:30.035 1:29.048 1:28.778 POLE P 2 George Russell Mercedes 1:29.967 1:29.686 1:29.076 +0.298 P 3 Oscar Piastri McLaren 1:30.200 1:29.451 1:29.132 +0.354 P 4 Charles Leclerc Ferrari 1:29.915 1:29.303 1:29.405 +0.627 P 5 Lando Norris McLaren 1:30.401 1:29.795 1:29.409 +0.631 P 6 Lewis Hamilton Ferrari 1:30.309 1:29.589 1:29.567 +0.789 P 7 Pierre Gasly Alpine 1:30.584 1:29.874 1:29.691 +0.913 P 8 Isack Hadjar Red Bull Racing 1:30.662 1:30.104 1:29.978 +1.200 P 9 Gabriel Bortoleto Audi 1:30.359 1:29.990 1:30.274 +1.496 P10 Arvid Lindblad Racing Bulls 1:30.781 1:30.109 1:30.319 +1.541 P11 Max Verstappen Red Bull Racing 1:30.519 1:30.262 - +1.484 ❌Q2 P12 Esteban Ocon Haas F1 Team 1:30.915 1:30.309 - +1.531 ❌Q2 P13 Nico Hulkenberg Audi 1:30.358 1:30.387 - +1.609 ❌Q2 P14 Liam Lawson Racing Bulls 1:30.657 1:30.495 - +1.717 ❌Q2 P15 Franco Colapinto Alpine 1:30.931 1:30.627 - +1.849 ❌Q2 P16 Carlos Sainz Williams 1:30.927 1:31.033 - +2.255 ❌Q2 P17 Alexander Albon Williams 1:31.088 - - +2.310 ❌Q1 P18 Oliver Bearman Haas F1 Team 1:31.090 - - +2.312 ❌Q1 P19 Sergio Perez Cadillac 1:32.206 - - +3.428 ❌Q1 P20 Valtteri Bottas Cadillac 1:32.330 - - +3.552 ❌Q1 P21 Fernando Alonso Aston Martin 1:32.646 - - +3.868 ❌Q1 P22 Lance Stroll Aston Martin 1:32.920 - - +4.142 ❌Q1 📊 QUALIFYING SECTOR DELTAS (vs field average): Driver S1 Δ S2 Δ S3 Δ Total Δ Top Spd -------------------------------------------------------------- Kimi Antonelli -0.686 -0.794 -0.209 -1.690 282 George Russell -0.688 -0.626 -0.077 -1.392 282 Oscar Piastri -0.578 -0.676 -0.081 -1.336 283 Charles Leclerc -0.763 -0.378 -0.023 -1.165 283 Lando Norris -0.492 -0.517 -0.049 -1.059 281 Lewis Hamilton -0.779 -0.299 +0.178 -0.901 276 Pierre Gasly -0.398 -0.204 -0.174 -0.777 285 Isack Hadjar -0.377 -0.096 -0.016 -0.490 285 Gabriel Bortoleto -0.192 -0.084 -0.201 -0.478 285 Arvid Lindblad +0.024 -0.190 -0.192 -0.359 287 Max Verstappen -0.172 -0.037 +0.004 -0.206 283 Esteban Ocon +0.020 -0.185 +0.007 -0.159 281 Nico Hulkenberg -0.055 -0.002 -0.052 -0.110 282 Liam Lawson +0.250 -0.058 -0.164 +0.027 285 Franco Colapinto +0.043 +0.200 -0.083 +0.159 282 Carlos Sainz +0.376 +0.201 -0.117 +0.459 291 Alexander Albon +0.317 +0.256 +0.048 +0.620 283 Oliver Bearman +0.283 +0.188 +0.152 +0.622 277 Sergio Perez +0.971 +0.434 +0.334 +1.738 283 Valtteri Bottas +0.821 +0.788 +0.254 +1.862 285 Fernando Alonso +0.995 +0.973 +0.211 +2.178 280 Lance Stroll +1.090 +1.108 +0.255 +2.452 277 🏎️ FINAL CAR PACE (10% season + 15% FP1 + 20% FP2 + 20% FP3 + 35% qualifying): Team Season FP1 FP2 FP3 Quali Final ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Mercedes P 4.1 P1.5 P1.5 P1.5 P1.5 P 1.8 Ferrari P 5.2 P5.5 P5.5 P3.5 P5.0 P 4.9 Alpine P 10.5 P15.5 P17.5 P13.5 P11.0 P 13.4 McLaren P 10.8 P3.5 P3.5 P5.5 P4.0 P 4.8 Red Bull Racing P 10.8 P9.5 P13.5 P9.5 P9.5 P 10.4 Racing Bulls P 11.4 P7.5 P11.5 P11.5 P12.0 P 11.1 Haas F1 Team P 12.2 P11.5 P7.5 P15.5 P15.0 P 12.8 Williams P 13.8 P17.5 P9.5 P17.5 P16.5 P 15.2 Audi P 13.9 P13.5 P15.5 P7.5 P11.0 P 11.9 Cadillac P 16.8 P19.5 P19.5 P19.5 P19.5 P 19.2 Aston Martin P 17.0 P21.5 P21.5 P21.5 P21.5 P 21.1 🌡️ Qualifying conditions: 16.5°C, 52% humidity, DRY ⚠️ RACE CONTROL NOTES: TURN 14 INCIDENT INVOLVING CARS 55 (SAI) AND 6 (HAD) NOTED - IMPEDING FIA STEWARDS: TURN 14 INCIDENT INVOLVING CARS 55 (SAI) AND 6 (HAD) REVIEWED NO FURTHER INVESTIGATION - IMPEDING FIA STEWARDS: Q1 INCIDENT INVOLVING CARS 41 (LIN) AND 5 (BOR) NOTED - FAILING TO FOLLOW RACE DIRECTORS INSTRUCTIONS - MAXIMUM DELTA TIME FIA STEWARDS: Q1 INCIDENT INVOLVING CARS 41 (LIN) AND 5 (BOR) WILL BE INVESTIGATED AFTER THE SESSION - FAILING TO FOLLOW RACE DIRECTORS INSTRUCTIONS - MAXIMUM DELTA TIME FIA STEWARDS: Q2 INCIDENT INVOLVING CAR 44 (HAM) NOTED - FAILING TO FOLLOW RACE DIRECTORS INSTRUCTIONS - MAXIMUM DELTA TIME FIA STEWARDS: Q2 INCIDENT INVOLVING CAR 44 (HAM) WILL BE INVESTIGATED AFTER THE SESSION - FAILING TO FOLLOW RACE DIRECTORS INSTRUCTIONS - MAXIMUM DELTA TIME FIA STEWARDS: Q1 INCIDENT INVOLVING CARS 41 (LIN) AND 5 (BOR) NO FURTHER ACTION - FAILING TO FOLLOW RACE DIRECTORS INSTRUCTIONS - MAXIMUM DELTA TIME FIA STEWARDS: Q2 INCIDENT INVOLVING CAR 44 (HAM) NO FURTHER ACTION - FAILING TO FOLLOW RACE DIRECTORS INSTRUCTIONS - MAXIMUM DELTA TIME ✅ Grid positions, sector deltas, car pace, speeds, and weather all updated from qualifying. ✅ 22 drivers on the grid. No penalties applied.
4. XGBoost v1.0 — 24 Features¶
The brain of the model. XGBoost is a machine learning algorithm that learns which factors best predict race results by analyzing patterns across 72 historical races. It automatically figures out that grid position matters more than track temperature, or that car pace matters more than first-lap skill. The feature importance chart below shows exactly what the model thinks matters most.
Feature matrix: 1529 entries × 24 features
=================================================================
🤖 XGBOOST v1.0 — 24 Features, Properly Validated
=================================================================
Leave-one-out MAE: 2.26 positions (HONEST metric)
Residual StdDev: 2.59
Features: 24 (all kept — race engineer approach)
2026 weight: 10x
This MAE is real — the model never saw the data it's predicting.
Top features:
grid_position 0.197
team_changed 0.096
team_pit_strategy 0.078
is_2026 0.076
car_pace 0.054
sector2_delta 0.053
car_speed 0.053
driver_avg_finish 0.045
5. Japan GP Predictions (v1.0)¶
The main event — predicted finishing order for Suzuka. Each column tells part of the story: Grid (actual qualifying position), Car (blended pace from all sessions), Spd (speed traps), Skill (teammate delta), Lap1 (first-corner performance), Tire (degradation rate), and Mom (improving/declining/stable).
Qualifying data is now integrated — actual grid positions, live Suzuka sector deltas, and 5-way blended car pace (10% season + 15% FP1 + 20% FP2 + 20% FP3 + 35% qualifying).
==================================================================================================== 🏁 PREDICTED FINISH — 2026 JAPANESE GP (v1.0 + Qualifying Data) ==================================================================================================== Pos Driver Team Grid Car Spd Skill Lap1 Tire Mom Pred ΔGrid ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- P 1 Kimi Antonelli Mercedes P 1 P 2 284 +4.8 -1.1 -0.061 ➡️ P 1.4 = P 2 Charles Leclerc Ferrari P 4 P 5 284 -0.2 +0.9 -0.023 📉 P 2.5 +2 P 3 Lewis Hamilton Ferrari P 6 P 5 284 +0.2 +1.0 +0.082 📈 P 4.0 +3 P 4 George Russell Mercedes P 2 P 2 284 -4.8 -0.8 -0.017 📉 P 4.5 -2 P 5 Lando Norris McLaren P 5 P 5 285 +1.2 +0.1 -0.022 📉 P 4.6 = P 6 Oscar Piastri McLaren P 3 P 5 285 -1.2 -0.8 -0.055 📈 P 5.3 -3 P 7 Isack Hadjar Red Bull Racing P 8 P10 287 -5.8 -0.2 -0.041 📈 P 6.8 +1 P 8 Pierre Gasly Alpine P 7 P13 285 +0.2 +0.4 -0.071 ➡️ P 6.9 -1 P 9 Max Verstappen Red Bull Racing P11 P10 287 +5.8 -0.1 -0.007 📉 P 7.7 +2 P10 Arvid Lindblad Racing Bulls P10 P11 287 -2.8 +2.6 -0.047 ➡️ P 8.4 = P11 Liam Lawson Racing Bulls P14 P11 287 +2.8 +0.6 -0.034 📈 P 9.6 +3 P12 Gabriel Bortoleto Audi P 9 P12 285 +1.4 -0.6 -0.025 📈 P10.8 -3 P13 Esteban Ocon Haas F1 Team P12 P13 283 -1.4 +1.2 -0.095 📈 P11.4 -1 P14 Nico Hulkenberg Audi P13 P12 285 -1.4 -0.9 -0.066 ➡️ P11.7 -1 P15 Carlos Sainz Williams P16 P15 289 +5.6 +1.1 -0.023 📉 P12.5 +1 P16 Oliver Bearman Haas F1 Team P18 P13 283 +1.4 +0.4 -0.035 📉 P12.5 +2 P17 Fernando Alonso Aston Martin P21 P21 279 0.0 +1.3 -0.088 📈 P13.4 +4 P18 Franco Colapinto Alpine P15 P13 285 -0.2 +0.8 -0.054 ➡️ P13.9 -3 P19 Lance Stroll Aston Martin P22 P21 279 0.0 +1.1 -0.011 📈 P15.6 +3 P20 Alexander Albon Williams P17 P15 289 -5.6 +0.4 -0.054 📈 P15.8 -3 P21 Sergio Perez Cadillac P19 P19 286 +0.8 +1.5 -0.131 ➡️ P15.9 -2 P22 Valtteri Bottas Cadillac P20 P19 286 -0.8 +1.0 +0.016 📉 P17.2 -2
6. Rain Scenario¶
Suzuka has been dry for the last 2 Japanese GPs, but 2023 had a safety car and rain is always possible in March. This shows how predictions shift in wet conditions — some drivers gain positions in the rain (strong wet-weather skills) while others lose out. Green arrows = gains in rain, red = loses.
====================================================================== 🌧️ RAIN SCENARIO ====================================================================== Driver Team Dry Wet Shift ------------------------------------------------------------ 🟢 Sergio Perez Cadillac P15.9 P14.7 +1.3 🟢 Lance Stroll Aston Martin P15.6 P14.5 +1.1 🟢 Valtteri Bottas Cadillac P17.2 P16.2 +1.0 🟢 Alexander Albon Williams P15.8 P14.9 +0.8 🟢 Fernando Alonso Aston Martin P13.4 P12.7 +0.7 🟢 Arvid Lindblad Racing Bulls P8.4 P7.7 +0.7 🟢 Gabriel Bortoleto Audi P10.8 P10.1 +0.6 🟢 Liam Lawson Racing Bulls P9.6 P8.9 +0.6 ⚪ Carlos Sainz Williams P12.5 P12.2 +0.3 ⚪ Franco Colapinto Alpine P13.9 P13.6 +0.3 ⚪ Isack Hadjar Red Bull Racing P6.8 P6.7 +0.1 ⚪ Oliver Bearman Haas F1 Team P12.5 P12.5 +0.1 ⚪ Esteban Ocon Haas F1 Team P11.4 P11.5 -0.0 ⚪ Kimi Antonelli Mercedes P1.4 P1.9 -0.5 🔴 Max Verstappen Red Bull Racing P7.7 P8.3 -0.6 🔴 Nico Hulkenberg Audi P11.7 P12.3 -0.6 🔴 George Russell Mercedes P4.5 P5.3 -0.8 🔴 Charles Leclerc Ferrari P2.5 P3.8 -1.2 🔴 Lando Norris McLaren P4.6 P6.0 -1.4 🔴 Pierre Gasly Alpine P6.9 P8.8 -1.9 🔴 Oscar Piastri McLaren P5.3 P7.7 -2.4 🔴 Lewis Hamilton Ferrari P4.0 P6.5 -2.5
7. Podium Probabilities (10,000 Simulated Races)¶
Instead of just predicting one outcome, we simulate the race 10,000 times with realistic randomness — mechanical failures, safety cars (33% chance at Suzuka), first-lap incidents, and general chaos. Then we count how often each driver ends up on the podium. This gives us probabilities rather than a single prediction, which better reflects how unpredictable F1 actually is.
=====================================================================================
🎲 PODIUM PROBABILITIES (10,000 Simulated Races) ===================================================================================== Grid-aware variance: P1-3 ×0.7, P4-7 ×0.9, P8-15 ×1.2, P16+ ×1.0 Safety car: 33% chance (Suzuka historical) Driver Team Grid Win Podium Top 5 Top 10 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Kimi Antonelli Mercedes P 1 44.2% 85.7% 96.3% 100.0% ██████████████████████ Charles Leclerc Ferrari P 4 25.0% 63.7% 83.9% 99.3% ████████████ Lewis Hamilton Ferrari P 6 12.4% 43.8% 69.5% 98.1% ██████ Lando Norris McLaren P 5 5.8% 28.5% 55.9% 95.5% ██ Isack Hadjar Red Bull Racing P 8 3.7% 13.8% 28.4% 75.1% █ George Russell Mercedes P 2 3.3% 24.7% 57.1% 98.4% █ Max Verstappen Red Bull Racing P11 1.6% 8.3% 19.1% 65.4% Oscar Piastri McLaren P 3 1.4% 14.2% 40.3% 96.3% Pierre Gasly Alpine P 7 1.0% 7.4% 21.5% 80.2% Arvid Lindblad Racing Bulls P10 1.0% 5.5% 13.5% 57.0% Liam Lawson Racing Bulls P14 0.4% 2.3% 6.5% 41.0% Gabriel Bortoleto Audi P 9 0.1% 1.0% 3.2% 27.2% Nico Hulkenberg Audi P13 0.1% 0.4% 1.6% 18.2% Esteban Ocon Haas F1 Team P12 0.1% 0.6% 2.1% 20.5% Carlos Sainz Williams P16 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 8.0%
8. Teammate Battles¶
The best measure of a driver's skill is how they perform against their teammate — same car, same strategy options, same pit crew. These head-to-head probabilities come from the 10,000 simulations and show who's likely to beat who within each team.
============================================================
🤝 TEAMMATE HEAD-TO-HEAD
============================================================
Alpine
Pierre Gasly ██████████████████████████████████████░░ Franco Colapinto
96.0% 4.0%
Aston Martin
Fernando Alonso █████████████████████████████░░░░░░░░░░░ Lance Stroll
72.8% 27.2%
Audi
Gabriel Bortoleto ███████████████████████░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░ Nico Hulkenberg
58.6% 41.4%
Cadillac
Sergio Perez █████████████████████████░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░ Valtteri Bottas
63.8% 36.2%
Ferrari
Charles Leclerc █████████████████████████░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░ Lewis Hamilton
63.2% 36.8%
Haas F1 Team
Esteban Ocon ████████████████████████░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░ Oliver Bearman
60.9% 39.1%
McLaren
Lando Norris ███████████████████████░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░ Oscar Piastri
59.6% 40.4%
Mercedes
Kimi Antonelli ███████████████████████████████████░░░░░ George Russell
88.8% 11.2%
Racing Bulls
Arvid Lindblad ████████████████████████░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░ Liam Lawson
60.3% 39.7%
Red Bull Racing
Isack Hadjar ███████████████████████░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░ Max Verstappen
57.8% 42.2%
Williams
Carlos Sainz ████████████████████████████████░░░░░░░░ Alexander Albon
81.4% 18.6%
9. F1 Fantasy Picks¶
Translating race predictions into F1 Fantasy strategy. The key insight: value matters more than raw points. A cheap driver who scores 12 points is better for your team than an expensive driver who scores 25 points, because the budget you save lets you upgrade elsewhere. The ⭐ marks the best value picks.
=====================================================================================
🏆 F1 FANTASY PICKS — Japan GP (v1.0)
=====================================================================================
Driver Team Pred Race Qual Bonus TOTAL ~$M Value
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Kimi Antonelli Mercedes P 1 19.5 10 0.0 29.5 $ 24 1.24 ⭐
Charles Leclerc Ferrari P 2 15.9 7 1.1 24.0 $ 23 1.02
Lewis Hamilton Ferrari P 3 12.7 5 2.4 20.1 $ 23 0.88
George Russell Mercedes P 4 10.2 9 0.0 19.2 $ 28 0.68
Lando Norris McLaren P 5 10.2 6 0.0 16.2 $ 27 0.60
Oscar Piastri McLaren P 6 8.1 8 0.0 16.1 $ 25 0.65
Pierre Gasly Alpine P 8 5.2 4 0.0 9.2 $ 13 0.72
Isack Hadjar Red Bull Racing P 7 6.1 3 0.1 9.2 $ 14 0.66
Max Verstappen Red Bull Racing P 9 4.5 0 3.0 7.5 $ 28 0.27
Fernando Alonso Aston Martin P17 0.1 0 7.2 7.3 $ 9 0.83
Liam Lawson Racing Bulls P11 2.0 0 3.9 5.9 $ 7 0.86
Lance Stroll Aston Martin P19 0.0 0 5.0 5.0 $ 7 0.73
Arvid Lindblad Racing Bulls P10 3.4 1 0.2 4.6 $ 7 0.62
Oliver Bearman Haas F1 Team P16 0.2 0 4.3 4.6 $ 9 0.53
Gabriel Bortoleto Audi P12 1.1 2 0.0 3.1 $ 6 0.49
Carlos Sainz Williams P15 0.2 0 1.3 1.5 $ 12 0.13
Esteban Ocon Haas F1 Team P13 0.8 0 0.0 0.8 $ 8 0.09
Nico Hulkenberg Audi P14 0.7 0 0.0 0.7 $ 6 0.12
Franco Colapinto Alpine P18 0.2 0 0.0 0.2 $ 7 0.02
Alexander Albon Williams P20 0.0 0 0.0 0.0 $ 11 0.00
Sergio Perez Cadillac P21 0.0 0 0.0 0.0 $ 6 0.00
Valtteri Bottas Cadillac P22 0.0 0 0.0 0.0 $ 5 0.00
💡 PICKS:
🔥 Best value:
→ Kimi Antonelli (Mercedes) — 29.5 pts / $23.8M = 1.24
→ Charles Leclerc (Ferrari) — 24.0 pts / $23.4M = 1.02
→ Lewis Hamilton (Ferrari) — 20.1 pts / $22.9M = 0.88
→ Liam Lawson (Racing Bulls) — 5.9 pts / $6.9M = 0.86
→ Fernando Alonso (Aston Martin) — 7.3 pts / $8.8M = 0.83
🚀 2x Boost: Kimi Antonelli — 29.5 × 2 = 59.1
🏗️ CONSTRUCTORS:
Constructor Season R03 $M S.Val R.Val
-------------------------------------------------------
Mercedes 211 48.7 $29.9 7.06 1.63 ⭐
Ferrari 188 44.1 $23.9 7.87 1.84 ⭐
Haas F1 Team 99 5.3 $ 8.6 11.51 0.62 ⭐
Red Bull Racing 87 16.6 $28.8 3.02 0.58
Racing Bulls 85 10.5 $ 7.5 11.33 1.40 ⭐
Alpine 67 9.4 $13.7 4.89 0.69
Williams 42 1.6 $13.2 3.18 0.12
McLaren 12 32.3 $28.5 0.42 1.13
Cadillac 9 0.0 $ 5.2 1.73 0.00
Audi -4 3.8 $ 5.4 -0.74 0.70
Aston Martin -58 12.3 $ 9.1 -6.37 1.35
🔥 Best value constructors (season pts / price):
→ Haas F1 Team — 99 pts / $8.6M = 11.51
→ Racing Bulls — 85 pts / $7.5M = 11.33
→ Ferrari — 188 pts / $23.9M = 7.87
10. My Fantasy Teams¶
Analysis of my two actual F1 Fantasy teams with specific transfer recommendations based on the model's predictions. Each suggestion shows the points gained, cost impact, and remaining budget.
=========================================================================== 📋 RUSSELLIN' FOR POSITION Transfers: 0 | Cap: $0.3M =========================================================================== Driver $ Bst Pred Pts 2x Val ------------------------------------------------------------ George Russell $28.0 P 4 19.2 19.2 0.68 Lewis Hamilton $22.9 P 3 20.1 20.1 0.88 Kimi Antonelli $23.8 2x⚡ P 1 29.5 59.1 1.24 Oliver Bearman $ 8.6 P 16 4.6 4.6 0.53 Valtteri Bottas $ 4.7 P 22 0.0 0.0 0.00 Constructor $ Szn R03 Val ------------------------------------------------------------ Racing Bulls $ 7.5 85 10.5 11.33 Cadillac $ 5.2 9 0.0 1.73 📊 PROJECTED: 113.4 pts (Drivers: 102.9 + Constructors: 10.5) 🔄 TRANSFERS: 📈 CONSTRUCTOR UPGRADE PATHS: Cadillac → Haas F1 Team + 90 szn pts need $3.1M freed Cadillac → Williams + 33 szn pts need $7.7M freed Cadillac → Alpine + 58 szn pts need $8.2M freed Racing Bulls → Haas F1 Team + 14 szn pts need $0.8M freed Racing Bulls → Ferrari +103 szn pts need $16.1M freed Racing Bulls → Mercedes +126 szn pts need $22.1M freed ✅ Boost correct on Kimi Antonelli =========================================================================== 📋 LECLERC ME IF YOU CAN Transfers: 0 | Cap: $0.0M =========================================================================== Driver $ Bst Pred Pts 2x Val ------------------------------------------------------------ George Russell $28.0 P 4 19.2 19.2 0.68 Charles Leclerc $23.4 P 2 24.0 24.0 1.02 Kimi Antonelli $23.8 2x⚡ P 1 29.5 59.1 1.24 Franco Colapinto $ 7.0 P 18 0.2 0.2 0.02 Valtteri Bottas $ 4.7 P 22 0.0 0.0 0.00 Constructor $ Szn R03 Val ------------------------------------------------------------ Racing Bulls $ 7.5 85 10.5 11.33 Cadillac $ 5.2 9 0.0 1.73 📊 PROJECTED: 112.9 pts (Drivers: 102.4 + Constructors: 10.5) 🔄 TRANSFERS: 📈 CONSTRUCTOR UPGRADE PATHS: Cadillac → Haas F1 Team + 90 szn pts need $3.4M freed Cadillac → Williams + 33 szn pts need $8.0M freed Cadillac → Alpine + 58 szn pts need $8.5M freed Racing Bulls → Haas F1 Team + 14 szn pts need $1.1M freed Racing Bulls → Ferrari +103 szn pts need $16.4M freed Racing Bulls → Mercedes +126 szn pts need $22.4M freed ✅ Boost correct on Kimi Antonelli
Confidence: HIGH (post-qualifying)¶
| Version | Features | Key Addition | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| v0.1 | 3 | ELO baseline | LOW |
| v0.2 | 9 | Regulation-aware weighting | LOW-MEDIUM |
| v0.3 | 9 | XGBoost ML | MEDIUM |
| v0.4 | 15 | Two-model approach + weather | MEDIUM |
| v0.5 | 15 | Speed traps + lap consistency | MEDIUM |
| v0.6 | 18 | First lap + tire degradation + momentum | MEDIUM |
| v0.7 | 21 | Suzuka sectors + safety car sim | MEDIUM-HIGH |
| v0.8 | 21 | 2026 weighted 10x (car > driver fix) | MEDIUM-HIGH |
| v0.9 | 22 | Honest validation + team change flag | MEDIUM-HIGH |
| v1.0 | 24 | Tire strategy + practice data | MEDIUM-HIGH |
| v1.0+Q | 24 | Actual qualifying grid + live sectors + 5-way car pace + position-dependent sims | HIGH |
What changed from pre-qualifying:
- Grid positions: estimated from season averages → actual P1-P22 from qualifying
- Sector deltas: 2023-2024 historical Suzuka → live 2026 qualifying sectors
- Car pace: 3-way blend (season/FP1/FP2) → 5-way blend (+FP3 +qualifying, 35% quali weight)
- Speed traps: FP1/FP2 only → includes qualifying max attack speeds
- Simulation: uniform variance → grid-position-dependent (front row tighter, midfield wider)
- Fantasy: estimated quali positions → actual qualifying results for scoring
- Weather: FP2 conditions → qualifying conditions (16.5°C, 52% humidity, dry)
Remaining uncertainty:
- Race day weather could change (forecast is dry but Suzuka is unpredictable)
- Safety car timing and VSC periods (modeled as 33% probability)
- Tire strategy choices (1-stop vs 2-stop) not yet race-specific
- First lap incidents — modeled statistically but inherently random
- Post-race: accuracy analysis to calibrate for future races
11. Race Results & Model Accuracy¶
The race has run — time to grade the model. This section pulls the official classification and compares it against the post-qualifying predictions above: position-by-position error, top 5 / top 10 accuracy, podium hits, and where the model beat or missed. These accuracy numbers feed the season scoreboard and calibrate future race simulations.
core INFO Loading data for Japanese Grand Prix - Race [v3.8.3]
req INFO Using cached data for session_info
req INFO Using cached data for driver_info
req INFO Using cached data for session_status_data
req INFO Using cached data for lap_count
req INFO Using cached data for track_status_data
req INFO Using cached data for _extended_timing_data
req INFO Using cached data for timing_app_data
core INFO Processing timing data...
req INFO Using cached data for car_data
req INFO Using cached data for position_data
req INFO Using cached data for weather_data
req INFO Using cached data for race_control_messages
core INFO Finished loading data for 22 drivers: ['12', '81', '16', '63', '1', '44', '10', '3', '30', '31', '27', '6', '5', '41', '55', '43', '11', '14', '77', '23', '18', '87']
=============================================================================================== 🏁 OFFICIAL RESULTS vs MODEL — 2026 JAPANESE GP =============================================================================================== Fin Driver Team Grid Pred Err Status -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- P 1 Kimi Antonelli Mercedes P 1 P 1 0 Finished 🎯 P 2 Oscar Piastri McLaren P 3 P 6 4 Finished P 3 Charles Leclerc Ferrari P 4 P 2 1 Finished P 4 George Russell Mercedes P 2 P 4 0 Finished 🎯 P 5 Lando Norris McLaren P 5 P 5 0 Finished 🎯 P 6 Lewis Hamilton Ferrari P 6 P 3 3 Finished P 7 Pierre Gasly Alpine P 7 P 8 1 Finished P 8 Max Verstappen Red Bull Racing P11 P 9 1 Finished P 9 Liam Lawson Racing Bulls P14 P11 2 Finished P10 Esteban Ocon Haas F1 Team P12 P13 3 Finished P11 Nico Hulkenberg Audi P13 P14 3 Finished P12 Isack Hadjar Red Bull Racing P 8 P 7 5 Finished P13 Gabriel Bortoleto Audi P 9 P12 1 Finished P14 Arvid Lindblad Racing Bulls P10 P10 4 Finished P15 Carlos Sainz Williams P16 P15 0 Finished 🎯 P16 Franco Colapinto Alpine P15 P18 2 Finished P17 Sergio Perez Cadillac P19 P21 4 Finished P18 Fernando Alonso Aston Martin P21 P17 1 Lapped P19 Valtteri Bottas Cadillac P20 P22 3 Lapped P20 Alexander Albon Williams P17 P20 0 Lapped 🎯 P21 Lance Stroll Aston Martin P22 P19 DNF Retired P22 Oliver Bearman Haas F1 Team P18 P16 DNF Retired 📊 SCORECARD ------------------------------------------------------------ Predicted winner: Kimi Antonelli Actual winner: Kimi Antonelli ✅ Podium accuracy: 2/3 Top 5 accuracy: 4/5 Top 10 accuracy: 8/10 MAE (classified): 1.90 positions (validation expected 2.26) 🏁 vs GRID BASELINE Grid-copy MAE: 1.95 (top5 5/5, top10 7/10) Model edge: +0.05 -> model beats grid 🎯 Best calls: Kimi Antonelli (P1→P1), George Russell (P4→P4), Lando Norris (P5→P5) 💥 Worst misses: Isack Hadjar (pred P7, fin P12), Oscar Piastri (pred P6, fin P2), Arvid Lindblad (pred P10, fin P14) 🔧 DNFs: Lance Stroll (Retired), Oliver Bearman (Retired)
