ποΈ Nina's F1 Predictions: 2026 Monaco Grand Prix (Round 6)ΒΆ
Circuit de Monaco β June 5-7, 2026ΒΆ
Model version: v1.0+Q (retrospective) Confidence: HIGH
What This IsΒΆ
A machine learning model that predicts Formula 1 race results from 24 features β the same kinds of data a race engineer considers when building race strategy. The model trains on every race through the round before this one (2026 weighted 10x over 2023-2025 history), takes the actual qualifying grid and live qualifying sector times for this weekend, then runs 10,000 simulated races to estimate podium probabilities.
This is a reconstructed prediction. The model was rebuilt using only data available before the Monaco GP β nothing from the race itself enters the model β so the accuracy check in the final section is a fair test. It backfills the season scoreboard for a race weekend that ran before the model was caught up.
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π€ XGBOOST v1.0 β 24 features, trained through Round 5
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Training rows: 1,507
Leave-one-out MAE: 2.27 positions (honest)
Residual StdDev: 2.76
Top features:
grid_position 0.240
team_pit_strategy 0.086
driver_avg_finish 0.063
car_pace 0.063
car_speed 0.053
sector2_delta 0.051
is_2026 0.037
quali_race_gap 0.037
1. Qualifying & Blended Car PaceΒΆ
Grid position is the model's single strongest predictor. This weekend's actual qualifying result sets the starting grid, and the team-level pace is a 30/70 blend of season-to-date form and qualifying performance. Live Monaco sector deltas from qualifying replace the historical track profile.
====================================================================== π QUALIFYING GRID β 2026 Monaco GP ====================================================================== Pos Driver Team Blend Pace ------------------------------------------------------------ P 1 Kimi Antonelli Mercedes P 3.5 P 2 Max Verstappen Red Bull Racing P 5.6 P 3 Lewis Hamilton Ferrari P 3.7 P 4 Charles Leclerc Ferrari P 3.7 P 5 Isack Hadjar Red Bull Racing P 5.6 P 6 George Russell Mercedes P 3.5 P 7 Oscar Piastri McLaren P 8.4 P 8 Lando Norris McLaren P 8.4 P 9 Pierre Gasly Alpine P 11.2 P10 Liam Lawson Racing Bulls P 12.5 P11 Alexander Albon Williams P 12.3 P12 Carlos Sainz Williams P 12.3 P13 Nico Hulkenberg Audi P 14.4 P14 Franco Colapinto Alpine P 11.2 P15 Arvid Lindblad Racing Bulls P 12.5 P16 Gabriel Bortoleto Audi P 14.4 P17 Esteban Ocon Haas F1 Team P 16.1 P18 Sergio Perez Cadillac P 18.3 P19 Oliver Bearman Haas F1 Team P 16.1 P20 Valtteri Bottas Cadillac P 18.3 P21 Fernando Alonso Aston Martin P 20.3 P22 Lance Stroll Aston Martin P 20.3 π‘οΈ Race conditions: 23.7Β°C, 62% humidity, DRY
2. Predicted FinishΒΆ
Each driver's predicted finishing position, with the inputs that drove it: grid (actual qualifying), car (blended team pace), and the position change the model expects relative to the grid.
================================================================================ π PREDICTED FINISH β 2026 Monaco GP ================================================================================ Pos Driver Team Grid Pred ΞGrid ---------------------------------------------------------------------- P 1 Kimi Antonelli Mercedes P 1 P 1.3 = P 2 Charles Leclerc Ferrari P 4 P 2.6 +2 P 3 Lewis Hamilton Ferrari P 3 P 3.2 = P 4 Max Verstappen Red Bull Racing P 2 P 3.9 -2 P 5 George Russell Mercedes P 6 P 4.8 +1 P 6 Isack Hadjar Red Bull Racing P 5 P 5.2 -1 P 7 Lando Norris McLaren P 8 P 8.2 +1 P 8 Oscar Piastri McLaren P 7 P 8.7 -1 P 9 Pierre Gasly Alpine P 9 P 9.0 = P10 Liam Lawson Racing Bulls P10 P 9.9 = P11 Arvid Lindblad Racing Bulls P15 P10.8 +4 P12 Carlos Sainz Williams P12 P11.5 = P13 Alexander Albon Williams P11 P12.2 -2 P14 Franco Colapinto Alpine P14 P12.7 = P15 Nico Hulkenberg Audi P13 P13.0 -2 P16 Gabriel Bortoleto Audi P16 P15.1 = P17 Oliver Bearman Haas F1 Team P19 P15.4 +2 P18 Esteban Ocon Haas F1 Team P17 P16.5 -1 P19 Sergio Perez Cadillac P18 P16.7 -1 P20 Fernando Alonso Aston Martin P21 P17.8 +1 P21 Lance Stroll Aston Martin P22 P17.8 +1 P22 Valtteri Bottas Cadillac P20 P18.4 -2
3. Podium Probabilities (10,000 Simulated Races)ΒΆ
Rather than a single outcome, the model simulates the race 10,000 times with realistic randomness β and now models retirements: each driver can DNF with their season failure rate, which promotes everyone behind them. That matters most at high-attrition tracks, where a front-runner's mechanical failure reshuffles the order. Add a 33% safety-car chance and grid-dependent chaos (the midfield is messier than the front row), and the result is a probability for each driver.
Modeled retirements: 4.5 per race (driven by each driver's season DNF rate) ================================================================================ π² PODIUM PROBABILITIES β 2026 Monaco GP ================================================================================ Driver Team Grid Win Podium Top5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Kimi Antonelli Mercedes P 1 46.4% 85.8% 96.3% βββββββββββββββββββββββ Charles Leclerc Ferrari P 4 22.3% 58.9% 80.0% βββββββββββ Lewis Hamilton Ferrari P 3 12.2% 52.3% 80.1% ββββββ George Russell Mercedes P 6 6.7% 31.0% 61.5% βββ Max Verstappen Red Bull Racing P 2 6.5% 38.1% 73.5% βββ Isack Hadjar Red Bull Racing P 5 3.1% 16.0% 39.4% β Lando Norris McLaren P 8 1.1% 5.7% 17.2% Pierre Gasly Alpine P 9 0.9% 4.8% 16.4% Liam Lawson Racing Bulls P10 0.4% 2.5% 9.5% Arvid Lindblad Racing Bulls P15 0.1% 1.2% 5.6% Carlos Sainz Williams P12 0.1% 0.9% 4.8% Oscar Piastri McLaren P 7 0.1% 1.9% 9.8%
4. Race Results & Model AccuracyΒΆ
The race has run β time to grade the model. Predicted order against the official classification: position-by-position error, podium / top-5 / top-10 accuracy, and the standout calls and misses. These numbers feed the season scoreboard.
===================================================================================== π OFFICIAL RESULTS vs MODEL β 2026 Monaco GP ===================================================================================== Fin Driver Team Pred Err Status ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ P 1 Kimi Antonelli Mercedes P 1 0 Finished π― P 2 Lewis Hamilton Ferrari P 3 1 Finished P 3 Isack Hadjar Red Bull Racing P 6 3 Finished P 4 Oscar Piastri McLaren P 8 4 Finished P 5 Liam Lawson Racing Bulls P10 5 Finished P 6 Arvid Lindblad Racing Bulls P11 5 Finished P 7 Pierre Gasly Alpine P 9 2 Finished P 8 Alexander Albon Williams P13 5 Finished P 9 Esteban Ocon Haas F1 Team P18 9 Finished P10 Fernando Alonso Aston Martin P20 10 Finished P11 Gabriel Bortoleto Audi P16 5 Finished P12 George Russell Mercedes P 5 7 Finished P13 Nico Hulkenberg Audi P15 2 Finished P14 Franco Colapinto Alpine P14 0 Finished π― P15 Sergio Perez Cadillac P19 4 Finished P16 Carlos Sainz Williams P12 DNF Retired P17 Charles Leclerc Ferrari P 2 DNF Retired P18 Lance Stroll Aston Martin P21 DNF Retired P19 Lando Norris McLaren P 7 DNF Retired P20 Oliver Bearman Haas F1 Team P17 DNF Retired P21 Valtteri Bottas Cadillac P22 DNF Retired P22 Max Verstappen Red Bull Racing P 4 DNF Retired π SCORECARD ------------------------------------------------------------ Predicted winner: Kimi Antonelli Actual winner: Kimi Antonelli β Podium accuracy: 2/3 Top 5 accuracy: 2/5 (grid baseline: 3/5) Top 10 accuracy: 6/10 (grid baseline: 6/10) MAE (classified): 4.13 positions (validation expected 2.27) π vs GRID BASELINE (does the model beat 'finish = qualifying order'?) Grid-copy MAE: 3.87 positions Model edge: -0.27 -> grid beats model π― Best calls: Kimi Antonelli (P1βP1), Franco Colapinto (P14βP14), Lewis Hamilton (P3βP2) π₯ Worst misses: Fernando Alonso (pred P20, fin P10), Esteban Ocon (pred P18, fin P9), George Russell (pred P5, fin P12) π§ DNFs: Carlos Sainz, Charles Leclerc, Lance Stroll, Lando Norris, Oliver Bearman, Valtteri Bottas, Max Verstappen
